It seems the financial headroom for India Inc will get worse, given the rising gap between profit growth and interest obligations.
'Foreign capital will continue to come directly into India, but companies have realised that GIFT City is a more cost-efficient way of channelling funds.'
Closely watched by the world for any escalation, the Iran-Israel conflict is already showing early signs of stress for India Inc - longer deliveries, doubling freight rates, extended working capital cycles, and higher costs. For those yet to feel the heat, there is growing apprehension and nervousness over future developments, observed industry executives.
India Inc has reported a muted start to the financial year 2024-25, with a decline in net earnings and a modest single-digit uptick in revenues. An analysis of 488 companies that have released their results for the June 2024 quarter reveals a 1.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) drop in combined net profit -- the weakest performance in the past seven quarters. In stark contrast, the combined net profit of these companies experienced a 13.6 per cent Y-o-Y increase in the previous quarter (Q4FY24) and a 65.2 per cent Y-o-Y rise in Q1FY24.
India Inc's net profit as a percentage of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is just shy of reaching 5 per cent, bolstered by strong earnings growth in the second quarter of 2023-24. Analysts interpret this as an indication that a corporate profit upcycle is in progress, with projections suggesting that this share could exceed 8 per cent within the next five years, driven by bullish earnings growth expectations. "We believe we are only halfway through a profit cycle, with the profit share in GDP rising from a low of 2 per cent in 2020 to about 5 per cent currently, and likely heading to 8 per cent in the coming four to five years. "This implies about 20 per cent compounding of earnings growth. "Underscoring this forecast is the start of a new private capex cycle, under-geared balance sheets, a healthy banking system, lower corporate tax rates, improving terms of trade, and structural consumption demand outlook albeit somewhat offset by likely consolidation in government deficit," said Ridham Desai, managing director, head of research, Morgan Stanley India in a note.
Roughly 40% of this projected outlay is expected to go towards emerging industries, including green hydrogen, clean energy, semiconductors, and electric vehicles.
Overseas fundraising by Indian firms is experiencing a robust revival in 2024, following a lacklustre 2023. This resurgence is primarily driven by strong demand for high-yield bonds from international investors amid improving liquidity conditions and reduced hedging costs. Indian companies raised ~32,619 crore through overseas bonds in the first half of 2024, surpassing the total amount raised via such instruments in the entire 2023, which stood at ~31,218 crore, according to PRIME Database. In comparison, ~45,237 crore was raised in 2022 and ~1.05 trillion was secured in 2021.
Broader sentiment of lack of transparency bothers most in India Inc.
A survey, with over 3,700 respondents across digital platforms, found that transparent taxation has been one of the most significant initiatives of the government followed by the production-linked incentives (PLI) scheme, equalisation levy and new labour codes.
India Inc's quarterly net profit reached a record high of Rs 1.64 trillion in the third quarter ended December 31, 2020, mainly due to gains from higher commodity prices and a big swing in banks' earnings. The combined net profit of 3,323 listed companies that have declared results so far was up 68.6 per cent year-on-year (YoY). In comparison, earnings were up six times (534 per cent) in the second quarter and 6.5 per cent in the corresponding period last year.
Mint Road's proposals on banks' M&A funding are cautious even as entrants root for more elbow room, and weigh business models.
United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Saturday had a breakfast meeting with top honchos of India Inc at the iconic, sea-facing Taj Hotel in Mumbai. Amongst those from India Inc who were present at the meeting included Ratan Tata, chairman of Tata Group and Reliance Industries' Mukesh Ambani. Others present were the chiefs of India's two largest banks, O P Bhatt of State Bank and Chanda Kochhar of ICICI Bank, Swati Piramal and Sudha Murthy.
Making strong inroads in the global acquisition arena, Indian companies have won many big ticket deals and acquisitions.
'Our problem is not a budget deficit but a trust deficit. We need to trust our institutions and industries to innovate and lead. That is the way forward for India.'
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's steady GDP growth outlook, improved banking sector's financial health and expected interest-rate cuts in 2025 will support credit access for corporates in FY26.
Welcoming the government's move to name new members on Satyam's board, industry on Sunday exuded confidence that the new directors would help shape the future of the scam-hit company and restore the global investors' confidence in India Inc.
The recent policies that have been announced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will allow banks to fully use its capital, funding profile to keep business at an equilibrium level, which otherwise was getting skewed towards retail, said K V Kamath, chairman, Jio Financial Services.
In absolute terms, capex spending has risen by Rs 228,000 crore (Rs 2,280 billion), despite declining profits and a 37 per cent decline in fund flow from financial markets in 2008-09. The capital-intensive sectors of India Inc do not find the current environment a deterrent to push ongoing expansion and so they continue with capex plans. The study looks at 323 listed companies whose capex spending data for 2008-09 is available.
Having rung in the New Year with two major acquisitions in the metals space, India Inc is set to execute more such deals, albeit in automotive, pharma and IT sectors, with companies in Europe being the targets.
The environment looks conducive for growth for corporate India and thus we believe that equities would continue to deliver decent returns over the long term. \n\n
India Inc's investments abroad in April-June 2015 have once again risen to $1.3 billion.
India Inc may offer an average salary hike of 9.6 per cent in 2024, similar to the actual increase last year, according to a report released by global professional services provider Ernst & Young (EY). The 'Future of Pay 2024' report states that the highest salary hikes are expected in e-commerce (10.9 per cent), financial services (10.1 per cent), and 10 per cent each in professional services and real estate. The expected hike will be lower than the 10.4 per cent seen in 2022. In 2023, the highest salary hikes were seen in e-commerce (10.5 per cent), and 10.4 per cent both in auto/vehicle manufacturing and financial services.
Corporate results confirm worst fears about growth trajectory.
'Historically, there hasn't been much representation around para-athletes from a brand perspective.' 'With their best medal tally in Paris, it has triggered considerable organic interest.'
India Inc has started lobbying with the government to compensate them by giving tax incentives on the funds spent on CSR.
Work-related stress can impact one's mental health. Which is why Saurabh Tiwari says he's fortunate that his company understands this and is doing whatever it can to help mitigate that stress. "My company provides opportunities according to my interest, and if anyone is feeling stressed or has additional workload, they can talk with their supervisor to resolve it," says the 31-year-old who's working from home for a Bengaluru-based IT firm. Not everyone's as lucky.
The banking sector emerged as an outlier when the rest of India Inc witnessed a slowdown in earnings in FY23. The combined net profit of listed public and private sector banks was up 39.4 per cent year-on-year (YoY) last financial year and their share in India's gross value added (GVA) or gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost rose to a record high of nearly 1 per cent up, from 0.8 per cent a year ago. Listed banks' combined net profit grew to Rs 2.36 trillion in FY23, from Rs 1.69 trillion a year ago. In comparison, India GVA at current prices was up 15.2 per cent YoY at Rs 247 trillion in FY23; it was around Rs 214 trillion a year ago.
India Inc on Tuesday expressed deep reservations over the supplier liability provision -- the contentious Clause 17(b) -- in the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damages Bill, 2010, saying it would seriously hinder nuclear commerce.
'It is inconceivable that there are no gays working in Indian corporations but obviously, the subject remains taboo enough in the workplace for those of alternate sexual orientation to feel safer remaining in the closet,' notes Kanika Datta.
The Delhi high court on Monday sought responses from the Centre and the Competition Commission of India (CCI) on Apple Inc's plea challenging recent amendments to the Competition Act that allow penalties to be based on a company's global turnover.
After four years of high double-digit growth in profits, corporate earnings of Indian companies hit a speed bump in the April-June quarter of 2024 (Q1FY25), leading to the risk of a downward revision in India Inc profit estimates for FY25 and volatility in the equity market. Earnings growth slowed despite companies in most non-financial sectors reporting higher operating margins from lower commodity prices and a decline in interest costs.
Demand on rise as companies look to expand in Asian, European markets
India Inc could be embarking upon a new phase of capital expenditure (capex) cycle, observed analysts, and suggest its revival would lead to a rerating of industrial stocks. Assisted by a property upcycle, analysts at Jefferies said several government initiatives were likely to drive capex. Indicators, they said, include a private project announcement at Rs 25 trillion for 2022-23 (up 150 per cent from pre-pandemic levels) and credit growth at about 16 per cent, which is closer to pre-pandemic highs.
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